The central bank has not set a deadline for banks to conclude the stress-test exercise, but senior bankers opine that some were already looking at this, and will now fast-track it by September-end, when they will have a better picture of their books after the moratorium on the servicing of loans and a 180-day view on the performance of borrowers' accounts.
With inflation under control, the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) job is to support growth because the economy had recovered well from the lows in the initial months of the pandemic, according to the panel's members, who met in the first week of this month. The minutes of the meeting show the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor in his statement said: "Given the sharp moderation in inflation along with a stable near-term outlook, monetary policy needs to continue with the accommodative stance to ensure that the recovery gains greater traction and becomes broad-based." Ashima Goyal, external member of the MPC, said: "The current macroeconomic configuration and its expected future evolution imply there is space for the MPC to continue to support the revival of the economy with inflation remaining in the target band."
The government is mulling changes in the income tax laws to bring cryptocurrencies under the tax net, with some changes that could form part of the Budget next year, a top official said. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj said that in terms of income tax, some people are already paying capital gains tax on the income from cryptocurrency, and in respect of Goods and Services Tax (GST) also the law is "very clear" that the rate would be applicable as those in case of other services.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
Positive cues from China - which accounts for 56.5 per cent of global crude steel production - are likely to keep demand-supply in balance and provide support to prices. All eyes have been on China, which opened after New Year holidays, as it was widely expected that prices would recover post-holidays after the weakness in January. Jayanta Roy, senior vice president, ICRA pointed out, barring last year when Covid-related restrictions affected China's steel demand in February 2020, historical trends show a typical upward movement in steel prices post-new year festivities. China's opening post-holidays was keenly awaited, especially in the wake of the sluggishness in the market in January.
The report said resilience of the banks has increased with a sharp improvement in the provision coverage ratio to 60.6 per cent in March 2019 from 52.4 per cent in September 2018 and 48.3 per cent in March 2018.
'Indian macro conditions have never been better, and many businesses will safely compound earnings over the next five years.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the much-awaited 2022-23 Union Budget on February 1. While there has been strong recovery in some sectors, touch services like hospitality, tourism and leisure continue to suffer after two Covid-19 waves. Household savings have been hit due to increased spending on health care. Consumption has still not reached pre-pandemic levels.
Expect markets to remain volatile as the poll dates come closer as well as if uncertainty prevails post-May 2009.
Following are the highlights of the RBI Monetary and Credit Policy for the year 2007-08:
Difficulties in containing the virus, an anaemic policy response, and underlying vulnerabilities, especially across the financial sector, are leading us to expect growth to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal year before rebounding in 2021, S&P said in a report.
It is worth reconsidering if this fascination with either having a single party majority or Modi's leadership or, indeed, both, is such a great idea for India, says Udit Misra.
Gross bad loans of banks may rise from 6.9 per cent in September 2021 to 8.1-9.5 per cent by September 2022 if the Omicron variant strikes the economy hard, as per the financial stability report of the Reserve Bank released on Wednesday. The report also said that the rising stress level in the retail loan portfolio of banks -- the mainstay of bank credit for many years now -- was led by home loans, which grew in double-digits so far this fiscal. While asset quality improved, with gross non-performing assets (GNPA) and net NPA (NNPA) ratios declining to 6.9 and 2.3 per cent, respectively, in September 2021, the slippage ratio inched up during the same period as private sector banks showed a higher rate of deterioration in asset quality, as per the report.
'India should start leveraging rather than banning crypto.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Friday backed the proposed data privacy and cryptocurrency bills, saying India is putting in place the most forward-looking policies and regulations. Ambani, who has been a votary of Indians owning and controlling their own data and the nation drafting strict rules around how digital information is stored and shared, said nations have the right to build and protect strategic digital infrastructure. Stating that data is the 'new oil', he said every citizen's right to privacy has to be safeguarded. "India is putting in place the most forward-looking policies and regulations," he said at the Infinity Forum, hosted by International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA).
Former Banque de France head Jacques de Larosire was given the Lifetime Achievement Award for his lengthy struggle for monetary order, the magazine said in a statement on Monday.
It adds that banks could be hiding some of the fraud cases, masking these as bad debt
There was hope in some quarters that the interim Budget would boost sentiment and lay the groundwork for kick-starting the investment cycle, while staying on a path of fiscal consolidation.
The 21st meeting of FSDC comes against the backdrop of the economy hitting a six-year low growth rate of 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2019-20. Even some of the macroeconomic data for the second quarter does not portray an encouraging picture of the economy.
'The Reserve Bank's independence has remained a work in progress, an enduring challenge that the nation has been grappling with on an ongoing basis,' says RBI Deputy Governor Dr Viral Acharya.
RBI Governor cautioned against more volatility.
Economy improving but long way to full recovery, says FSDC.
The outgoing Chief Economic Advisor will always be remembered for his remarkable passion, his large imprint on policymaking and the high level of public debate he fostered
India's macroeconomic situation is improving fast and the country's GDP growth will turn positive in the third and fourth quarters of the current financial year, eminent economist Ashima Goyal said on Sunday. Goyal in an interview to PTI said the management of the COVID-19 pandemic and gradual unlocks announced by the government have helped in avoiding multiple COVID-19 peaks. The growth estimates by different agencies are being continuously revised, she said.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that inflation is on a declining trajectory, as it has fallen by 170 basis points from its January 2020 peak. Retail inflation fell to four-month low of 5.91 per cent in March over the previous month, mainly due to easing food prices.
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Companies are legally allowed to invest in markets in India, but the practice has seldom stirred central bank concern until recently, when they have become much more active players.
The reform priorities are clear: enhance savings, improve productivity. Just 25 basis points of moving interest rate up or down would not boost investment: Former RBI Governor Y V Reddy.
The World Bank's executive board unanimously selected 63-year-old Malpass, who is currently Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs, as the bank's 13th President for a five-year term beginning April 9.
The future of cryptocurrencies in India appears uncertain but that has not deterred young Indians from embracing the so-called 'fourth industrial revolution' world, where interconnectivity and smart automation, much of it relying on blockchain technology, drive human civilisation. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has repeatedly warned of macroeconomic instability and even "serious consequences" if cryptocurrencies turn mainstream. The country's monetary authority wants a China-like total ban on crypto, not even allowing these currencies to be treated as investments. Though Parliament's website had listed the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill as one seeking a total ban of cryptocurrencies in the country, it was not presented in the Winter Session. India now has the highest number of cryptocurrency investors in the world.
India's sovereign credit ratings do not reflect the economy's fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Friday and nudged the global agencies to become more transparent and less subjective in their ratings. The Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled in Parliament, said that sovereign credit ratings methodology must be amended to reflect economies' ability and willingness to pay their debt obligations, and suggested that developing economies must come together to address this bias and subjectivity inherent in sovereign credit ratings methodology. "Never in the history of sovereign credit ratings has the fifth largest economy in the world been rated as the lowest rung of the investment-grade (BBB-/Baa3). While sovereign credit ratings do not reflect the Indian economy's fundamentals, noisy, opaque and biased credit ratings damage FPI flows," the survey said.
India's public debt ratio, which remarkably remained stable at around 70 per cent of the GDP since 1991, is projected to jump by 17 percentage points to nearly 90 per cent because of increase in public spending due to COVID-19, the IMF said.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan is regarded as credible by global financiers.
'The RBI risks becoming dangerously weakened, as successive governments and finance ministers have misunderstood its role'.
Among the bank groups, under the baseline scenario, public sector banks' gross NPA ratios may increase to 13.2 per cent by September 2020 from 12.7 per cent in September 2019.
As if wanting to be an antidote to the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian stock market adorned carnival robes in 2021 with a tsunami of liquidity unleashed by global central banks coupled with supportive domestic policies and the world's largest vaccination drive sparking off a world-beating rally on Dalal Street, despite bouts of uneasiness over fizzy valuations. While the wider economy shuttled between recovery and relapse, dictated by multiple mutations of the virus, equity market benchmarks appeared headed in just one direction -- skywards. The dizzying upward journey has added a whopping Rs 72 lakh crore during 2021 to investors' wealth, measured as the cumulative value of all listed shares in the country, taking it to nearly Rs 260 lakh crore.
'A strong foreign exchange reserve is the best safety net against global spillovers.'
Most expect these bubbles to break in short order and cause serious financial pain to anyone who's foolhardy enough to remain invested in financial assets.
Raghuram Rajan, who has been pilloried by his critics for keeping interest rates high and has also been accused of stifling growth.
About 50 per cent of the accounts that availed of the EMI moratorium amid the pandemic, which made things worse in an already slowing economy, are expected to be restructured, and of these accounts that would undergo restructuring, one-third, or Rs 6-9 trillion, could turn into NPAs.
